S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.7% after the holiday. The key week begins with the ISM services, Fed minutes, and June CPI, while investors await the start of the Q2 earnings season.
Wall Street futures are trading higher this Monday, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.7%, following Friday's holiday in the United States. European markets, on the other hand, open with little variation, awaiting a week packed with macroeconomic references and the kick-off of the Q2 earnings season.
The macro agenda sets the weekly pace
Investor focus shifts from geopolitics to monetary policy and the US economic cycle. The most immediate reference is the June ISM services, which is published today. This will be followed by the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting and, on July 14, the June CPI in the US, a crucial figure to gauge whether the Fed can maintain its pause on interest rates.
In the Eurozone, investors will be attentive to the July Sentix investor confidence, producer prices, and May retail sales. In China, June inflation data, including both CPI and producer prices, will complete the picture.
The market is also closely monitoring the weakness of the Japanese yen, where the risk of currency intervention remains latent, and the negotiations between the United States and Iran, which influence geopolitical stability and oil prices.
Q2 2026 results: a modest start and a major date in July
The Q2 earnings season in the United States begins this week, albeit modestly: only three companies from the S&P 500 are publishing their figures. The real kick-off will come on July 14, with the results from US investment banks.
In Spain, the first relevant references will not arrive until July 21. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, July 7, SpaceX will officially join the Nasdaq 100, a milestone that investors are following closely.
The preliminary results from Samsung will provide insight into the demand cycle linked to artificial intelligence, following the volatility seen last week in semiconductor manufacturers. Markets will need to rely on these figures to justify valuations that remain demanding in several sectors.
The macro context favours a pause from central banks
The combination of moderating inflation on both sides of the Atlantic — with the Eurozone CPI at 2.8% — and stable oil prices around $72 per barrel (the lowest since February) alleviates inflationary pressures. The US labour market shows signs of cooling, allowing central banks to justify a pause in their monetary policy.
In this context, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has appeared less hawkish than feared, contributing to improved sentiment. Investors are pricing in that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting, awaiting more data to confirm the disinflationary trend.
For investors, the key lies in this week's agenda: the ISM services and the Fed minutes will provide clues about the health of the US economy and the central bank's intentions. The June CPI, on July 14, will be the decisive figure. Until then, volatility may remain contained, but any upside surprise in inflation could rekindle fears of a rate hike.
The earnings season, although starting with little intensity, will set the direction of the markets in the coming weeks. Investors should pay attention to earnings guidance and company forecasts, especially in sectors like technology and banking, to adjust their portfolios.
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