The ECB's July survey reflects a decrease in one-year inflation expectations to 2.9%, while economic growth forecasts improve slightly.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Consumer Expectations Survey for July 2026 shows a new easing in eurozone households' inflation forecasts. The median expectation for the next twelve months fell to 2.9%, one-tenth lower than in June, according to data published on 21 August.
Perceptions of past inflation also decreased: consumers estimate the price increase over the last twelve months at 3.5%, down from the previous 3.6%. Three-year expectations dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%, while five-year expectations remained stable at 2.4%.
Uncertainty about price developments over the next twelve months did not change and remains above pre-war levels in the Middle East. Households with lower incomes continue to perceive and expect higher inflation than those with higher incomes, and those under 34 maintain more moderate expectations than those over 35.
In terms of income, expectations for nominal income growth in the next year fell by one-tenth to 1.0%. The growth of nominal spending perceived over the last twelve months remained at 5.1%, and the expected growth for the next year at 3.6%.
Economic prospects improve slightly: the GDP growth expectation for the next twelve months rose to -1.2%, up from -1.4% in June, although it remains in negative territory. The expected unemployment rate in a year remained at 11.2%, and the perception of the current employment situation at 10.6%.
The labour market, however, shows signs of weakening in the quarterly data. The probability of finding a job in the next three months reported by the unemployed fell to 30.8% in July, down from 32.1% in April. Among the employed, the perceived probability of losing their job rose from 8.8% to 9.8%.
In the real estate sector, consumers expect their home prices to rise by 3.4% over the next twelve months, the same as in June. Expectations for one-year mortgage rates dropped to 4.9%, one-tenth lower than the previous month, with notable differences by income level: poorer households expect 5.7% and richer households 4.4%.
Access to credit shows a mixed balance: in the last twelve months, a greater tightening was perceived, but a slight easing is expected for the next year. The proportion of households that applied for credit in the last three months rose to 14.3% in July, up from 13.4% in April.
For readers interested in the evolution of the Spanish economy, these eurozone-wide data provide a key reference: the moderation of inflation and interest rate expectations supports the idea that the cost of living and mortgages could stabilise in the coming months, although the weakness of the labour market and income disparities remain focal points of concern.
You may also like
