Trading volume on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange fell to its lowest level since early 2026, with just 11.6 trillion VND in the last session. Selling pressure and a shortage of interbank liquidity keep the VN-Index away from 1,800 points.
The Vietnamese stock market has just recorded its third consecutive week of declines, dragged down by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a historic drop in liquidity. The VN-Index closed at 1,787 points, down 2.24%, while the VN30 lost nearly 2% to 1,931 points.
What is most striking is not only the decline of the indices but the disappearance of cash flow. In the last session, trading volume on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) was just over 11.6 trillion VND, the lowest level since the start of 2026. The volume of matching orders plummeted by 25.8% compared to the average of the last 20 days, according to market data.
The shadow of Vingroup and foreign exodus
The breadth of the market was overwhelmingly negative. Sectors such as steel, technology, telecommunications, industrial parks, banking, securities, and real estate faced considerable pressure. Shares of Vingroup (VHM, VIC), which had led the gains for weeks, entered a consolidation phase in early July, which removed the main support from the index.
Foreign investors did not help either. Their net selling trend continued strongly: on the HoSE, they sold shares worth 2.134 trillion VND in a single session, adding downward pressure.
The statistics are revealing: the ratio of capital invested in declining stocks was 2.13 times higher than that in rising stocks. Money simply isn't coming in.
Interbank liquidity shortage and high rates
Behind this drought of flows lies a specific cause: the shortage of liquidity in the interbank market. Commercial bank deposit interest rates have remained high, and interbank rates for one week and one month have been at elevated levels for months. This makes money more expensive and discourages investment in equities.
The analysis team at Thien Viet Securities (TVS) warns that this problem will not be resolved immediately in July, so low liquidity could persist for the rest of the month. According to TVS, money only circulated quickly between sectors for short periods of 3 to 5 sessions, with no group managing to sustain an upward push on the index.
“This is the main reason why other leading sectors, such as banking, real estate, or securities, failed to move the VN-Index for the rest of the month,” TVS explains.
Results season, a moderate respite?
Hope is pinned on the second quarter earnings season, which kicks off in the second half of July. Several financial institutions expect positive figures, which could boost a recovery of the VN-Index. However, TVS believes the impact will be moderate: the lack of liquidity will limit gains even for the best-performing groups.
The firm recommends that investors focus on stocks that attract capital flows, such as the Vingroup group itself or sectors with solid results in the second quarter. They also suggest monitoring the index's behaviour at the 1,800 points level and considering entry only after the VN-Index confirms a low around that support.
“Investors are advised to consider groups of stocks that attract capital flows and lead the market, such as Vingroup or sectors with positive commercial results in the second quarter; to monitor the index's performance at the 1,800 points mark and to consider investing after the VN-Index confirms a low around this support level,” states the TVS announcement.
For retail investors, the practical conclusion is clear: patience and caution. With liquidity at rock bottom and foreigners selling, any rebound will be fragile. The key will be corporate earnings and whether the 1,800 points support holds. If it doesn't, the correction could extend longer than expected.
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