Financial analyst Juan Ignacio Crespo detects worrying signs in the markets: liquidity has vanished and the Federal Reserve has been injecting money daily for the past three days, something exceptional.
The financial analyst Juan Ignacio Crespo has issued a warning that, according to him, "practically no one" is pointing out: the Federal Reserve is "on the brink of panic" and has been injecting extra liquidity into the markets through Treasury bill auctions for the past three days. In these operations, the Fed allocates up to 95% of what is requested, with amounts exceeding $30 billion or $35 billion daily. "Normally, if there is a demand for $40 billion, it allocates $3 billion or $5 billion," Crespo compares.
The figure that concerns the expert the most is the near disappearance of the reverse repo, which had accumulated $2.3 trillion and now barely totals $100 million. "This means that the excess liquidity that was in the markets has completely disappeared," he warns in an interview with Capital.
Oil raises alarms again
The Brent has once again surpassed $90 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with nine consecutive nights of U.S. attacks on Iranian positions. Crespo believes this development corresponds to the "standard behaviour of oil crises," particularly similar to that of 1990.
"The acute phase of the oil crisis ended in early May, there was a calm period with falling prices, and then this rebound to exactly $90," he explains. The analyst does not rule out that the price could extend "up to $103 per barrel of Brent" if the situation worsens, although he does not believe it will go much beyond that.
Stock markets hold, but alarm signals appear
Despite the spectacular corporate results, Crespo detects "worrying symptoms" in the markets. The Nasdaq 100 has lost almost 7% since June 3, while the Standard & Poor's has barely fallen 2%. The Russell 2000 has experienced "a colossal rise," although it is also starting to weaken.
The analyst's initial forecast indicated that the markets would hold "until early autumn," but he now observes signs that could anticipate that moment. For the individual investor, this implies a context of greater volatility where caution prevails: risk assets could suffer abrupt corrections if liquidity continues to evaporate.
Crespo: "The excess liquidity has completely disappeared"
The analyst recalls that the Fed already injected liquidity massively during the 2008 crisis and the pandemic, but then it did so through asset purchase programs. Now it resorts to daily auctions, a more discreet mechanism but equally significant. "This is the first time we have seen something like this outside of an acute crisis," he points out.
For Spanish investors, the practical recommendation is to review exposure to equities, especially U.S. tech stocks, and consider hedges such as gold or short-term government debt. The geopolitical context, with rising oil prices, adds inflationary pressure that could delay expected rate cuts.
The next key move will be the Fed meeting at the end of the month, where Jerome Powell is expected to provide clues about monetary policy. Until then, volatility will be the dominant tone.
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