The World Trade Organization predicts a slowdown in global trade for this year, weighed down by trade wars and armed conflicts. The blockade of Hormuz and Trump's tariffs on the EU set the pace.
Economists from the World Trade Organization have released a forecast that, although moderate, reflects the fragility of the international scenario: global trade will slow down in 2026. The warning comes in a context marked by the trade war between the United States and the European Union, the conflict in the Middle East, and tensions with China.
Tariff war and blockade of key routes
The trade war triggered by former President Trump's announcement of a 20% tax on almost all EU exports has been one of the main burdens. This tariff was joined by a 10% universal tax applied to other countries, generating months of fluctuations that have affected sectors such as automotive and agri-food.
The European Union responded with protectionist measures that have also targeted the Chinese market. Beijing reacted by raising tariffs in key sectors, such as agri-food and automotive. The latest battle is being fought with the implementation of a new European tariff to curb the influx of cheap imports from platforms like Temu, Shein, or AliExpress.
In the Middle East, the US and Israel's war against Iran, which began in February, has led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in fuel prices. Both factors directly impact the financial results and supply chains of European companies.
The EU-Mercosur agreement opens a path of hope
Amid this landscape, the entry into force on May 1 of the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur provides a breath of fresh air. The pact will facilitate access to a market of 273 million consumers. Mercosur will liberalize 91% of its imports from the EU, while the EU will liberalize 92% of its imports from the South American bloc. The estimated annual tariff savings for European exports amounts to 4 billion euros.
For Spanish companies, the agreement opens opportunities in sectors such as machinery, capital goods, and chemicals. However, the primary sector is wary of unfair competition from agri-food imports, especially beef.
Aragón withstands and grows in exports despite the storm
The Minister of Economy, Competitiveness, and Employment of the Government of Aragón, Eva Valle, stated that the economy of the Community "has consolidated itself as one of the most open in the country despite the difficulties." Data from Aragón Exterior (Arex) confirms this: Aragonese exports have even grown in areas affected by conflicts.
A total of 252 million euros in Aragonese goods reached the United States in 2025, a 7% increase, with pork sales doubling. To China, meat products worth about 300 million euros were exported, and regional authorities have worked to reduce the tariffs imposed by Beijing on the pork sector.
As for the Middle East, Aragonese exports in 2025 reached 268.6 million euros, with 75% concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates. Imports from the region barely exceeded 40 million.
For the Spanish business fabric, the lesson is clear: market diversification and commitment to agreements like Mercosur are key to navigating global instability. The WTO will continue to monitor developments, but for now, global trade is moving with the handbrake on.
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