The European Central Bank has published the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2026, which cuts the forecast for real GDP growth to 0.6% for this year, four tenths lower than in the previous survey. Underlying inflation has been revised upwards for 2026.
The European Central Bank (ECB) published the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on Thursday for the third quarter of 2026, reflecting a deterioration in short-term growth expectations for the eurozone. The analysts consulted now place the real GDP growth at 0.6% for the entirety of 2026, four tenths lower than they estimated in the previous round of the survey.
The downward revision also affects 2027, although to a lesser extent: experts forecast a growth of 1.2%, one tenth lower than in the second quarter survey. For 2028, however, projections remain stable at 1.3%. Over the longer term, growth expectations for 2031 have been reduced by one tenth to 1.2%.
This data arrives in a context of persistent weakness in the European economy, weighed down by moderate consumption, geopolitical uncertainty, and the monetary tightening of recent years. The cut in forecasts for 2026 is particularly significant, as it represents the largest downward correction so far this year.
Underlying Inflation Slightly Rises in 2026
Regarding prices, expectations for general inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remain virtually unchanged. Respondents forecast 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028. Compared to the previous survey, the only upward revision is one tenth for 2027, while 2026 and 2028 remain the same.
However, a relevant adjustment has occurred in underlying inflation, which excludes unprocessed food and energy (HICPX). For 2026, experts raise their forecast to 2.4%, two tenths higher than in the previous survey. This correction brings professional estimates closer to the projections of Eurosystem staff published in June. For 2027 and 2028, expectations for underlying inflation remain at 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively.
In the long term (2031), both general and underlying inflation stabilise at 2.0%, in line with the ECB's target. Analysts believe that potential indirect and second-round effects stemming from the conflict in the Middle East will be limited and concentrated in 2026.
The risk balance for inflation tilts slightly upwards in 2026 but is considered more balanced from 2027 onwards. This suggests that, while price pressures persist, especially in the more rigid components, the overall trend points to a gradual moderation.
Unemployment Remains Steady, but Expectations Slightly Deteriorate
Forecasts for the labour market also reflect a slight deterioration. Respondents place the unemployment rate at 6.3% for both 2026 and 2027, one tenth higher than previously expected for 2027. For 2028, the rate would drop to 6.2%, also one tenth above the previous forecast. In the long term, unemployment would be at 6.1%, unchanged from the previous survey.
Wage growth, one of the key indicators for measuring second-round inflationary pressures, is gradually moderating. Analysts forecast a rise of 3.2% in 2026, three tenths lower than in the previous survey; 3.0% in 2027; and 2.8% in 2028. In the long term, wage growth rises by one tenth to 2.9%.
For businesses and investors, these figures provide a roadmap for the expected evolution of the European economy. The cut in growth for 2026 suggests that activity will remain weak, while slightly higher underlying inflation could delay the pace of interest rate cuts by the ECB. The coming months will be crucial to confirm whether these forecasts materialise or if new factors emerge that modify them.
The next SPF survey will be published in the fourth quarter of 2026 and will allow for an assessment of whether the economic deterioration consolidates or, conversely, signs of recovery appear.
You may also like
