27 of 37 specialists do not dare to predict when Banxico will move rates. Among those who do, equal halves bet on a hike or a cut of 25 basis points.
The next decision by Banco de México (Banxico) regarding the interest rate keeps analysts on edge. According to the latest Citi Expectations Survey, 27 of the 37 specialists consulted did not indicate a date for the next movement of the central bank. This figure reflects an unusual lack of consensus in a market that usually aligns relatively quickly.
Among the ten analysts who do anticipate a change, opinions are completely divided: five expect a 25 basis point increase and another five foresee a cut of the same magnitude. Estimates regarding the timing of the adjustment are spread between late 2026 and late 2027, highlighting the high uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of monetary policy.
Inflation Forecasts Slightly Moderate
Specialists have lowered their estimate for general inflation at the end of 2026 to 4.20%, down from 4.27% in the previous survey. Core inflation — which excludes fresh food and energy — decreased to 4.18% from 4.19%.
Despite the slight moderation, both indicators remain above Banxico's permanent target of 3%, with a one percentage point variation margin. For 2027, the consensus kept its forecasts unchanged: general inflation at 3.86% and core inflation at 3.84%.
“The median forecast for the monetary policy rate at the end of 2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 6.75%,” Citi indicated in its report.
Market Remains Cautious About Economic Growth
Regarding economic activity, specialists have kept their expectations for Mexico's GDP growth unchanged. The average projection for 2026 remained at 1.1%, the same level reported at the end of June, after having decreased from 1.2% at the beginning of that month.
The stability in forecasts reflects a cautious stance in light of the challenges facing the Mexican economy and the uncertainty that persists both internally and externally. Market estimates continue to fall below the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), which anticipates a growth of 2.3% for 2026, within a range of 1.8% to 2.8%. For 2027, the consensus also recorded no changes and maintained an expectation of economic expansion of 1.7%.
For the investor or analyst closely following Mexican monetary policy, the message is clear: Banxico will not give clear signals until inflation shows a firmer trend towards the target. The lack of consensus among specialists suggests that the next move — if it comes — could be later than some expect. The Citi survey is published monthly, and the next edition, scheduled for August, will shed light on whether the uncertainty dissipates or consolidates.
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