Samsung forecasts a record profit of 89.4 billion won in the second quarter, but its stock falls. The market no longer rewards just the demand for AI: it demands proof that the profit cycle will last.
On Tuesday, Samsung announced an operating profit forecast for the second quarter of 89.4 billion won (about 60 billion euros), compared to 4.7 billion the previous year. Revenues will grow by 129%, reaching 171 billion won. However, the South Korean tech company's stock fell after the announcement. The market is no longer satisfied with good results: it wants to know how long the feast will last.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the driving force behind Samsung's revaluation, with its shares having doubled in the year before the latest correction. But investors have changed their mindset. “Buying on the rumour and selling on the news explains part of the reaction, but not all of it,” market analysis points out. Now the questions are different: how long will the memory shortage last? When will the new supply match the demand?
The market rewards less and demands more
The S&P 500 is trading at 20.4 times future earnings, above its ten-year average (19.0 times). The ten largest companies in the index represent 36.4% of its market capitalisation. This concentration is not unjustified: the revenues of the 20 largest companies grew by 10.5% in 2025, double that of the rest. But it leaves little room for disappointment.
“When a small group of companies supports much of the index's profitability, even good news can be insufficient if it does not change the future trajectory,” market sources explain. Samsung is the perfect example: its record profit was not enough because the market already expected it and wants more: long-term consistency.
SK Hynix's supply tests investor appetite
The IPO in the U.S. of SK Hynix, valued at $28 billion, will be another test. The operation, one of the largest IPOs in history, will offer U.S. investors direct exposure to the high-bandwidth memory boom, crucial for AI.
The question is not just whether SK Hynix will attract money, but whether the market will absorb a new massive supply of exposure to AI after the strong rise in memory stocks. “A solid reception would suggest that AI demand remains strong; a more hesitant one would indicate that the market is becoming more selective,” analysts point out. For retail investors, the IPO may be an opportunity, but it is wise to watch the offering price and the discount compared to the listing in Korea.
Rates and oil tighten valuations
The macro environment is not helping either. Brent crude is around $73 a barrel and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond stands at 4.50%. No figure is alarming on its own, but together they make the context for tech valuations more expensive.
“A 4.50% yield does not derail technology, but it limits the margin for further expansion of multiples,” financial sources warn. When rates are low, investors pay more for distant growth; with higher rates, the market demands immediate and sustainable results. For investors in the Spanish stock market, the lesson is clear: tech stocks listed in Europe, such as AMS semiconductors or indirect exposure via Inditex to digitalisation, may be dragged down by this same dynamic if they do not show recurring profits.
The next milestone will be the SK Hynix IPO, expected in the coming weeks. Its evolution will provide the real measure of appetite for AI in a higher rate environment and demanding valuations. Meanwhile, Samsung demonstrates that, in the stock market, records are no longer celebrated: they are put to the test.
You may also like
