ING economists expect that the National Bank of Poland will keep interest rates at 3.75% until the end of 2026, ruling out hikes and delaying cuts until inflation provides assurances.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will maintain interest rates at 3.75% in its meeting on July 9 and will not change them until the end of 2026, according to forecasts by ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak. The entity rules out hikes and considers that cuts are unlikely in the short term, despite inflation returning to the target of 2.5% in June.
Wait-and-see Stance After Turmoil in the Persian Gulf
ING analysts note that the monetary easing cycle in Poland was interrupted by turmoil in the Persian Gulf, which generated uncertainty in energy markets. Now, the Polish central bank prefers to maintain a cautious stance until it has greater confidence in inflation prospects.
“With inflation back at the target of 2.5% in June, we believe it is likely that the Polish central bank will maintain its wait-and-see stance on July 9,” the economists state in a report. “Rate hikes are ruled out, while cuts remain unlikely in the short term.”
The entity expects the Monetary Policy Council to leave rates unchanged in July and maintain its conservative approach. Although the July macroeconomic projection could show favourable medium-term inflation prospects, policymakers will need several months to be convinced that the economy avoids delayed inflationary effects, especially in core CPI.
Stable Rate Forecast Until End of 2026
ING maintains its baseline scenario that rates will remain at 3.75% until the end of 2026, as they expect CPI to be slightly above the year-on-year target of 2.5% for the rest of the year. This stability contrasts with the volatility of market expectations: at the beginning of June, rate forwards priced in more than three hikes, while by early July some investors were already betting on cuts.
“Our views are less volatile. Throughout the war between the U.S. and Iran, we maintained the view of unchanged NBP rates,” Benecki and Antoniak emphasise. For investors, this implies that the Polish zloty could remain stable in the short term, but without additional stimuli from the central bank.
The NBP's decision directly affects businesses and individuals exposed to the Polish economy, whether through investments, imports, or exports. Stable rates offer predictability but also limit the scope for boosting credit and consumption. Those with variable-rate debts in zlotys will see no changes in their payments, while savers will continue to lack attractive returns on deposits.
The Polish central bank will meet next on July 9, and analysts expect the subsequent statement to maintain a cautious tone, with no signs of imminent movement. Discussions about easing could re-emerge later this year, but not before core inflation shows clear signs of moderation.
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