JB Capital Markets and Citi have raised the target prices for Mapfre, Banco Sabadell and Unicaja, but maintain neutral recommendations. The revaluation margin is minimal or negative, suggesting that the market has already discounted the good prospects.
The analysis firms are fine-tuning their models ahead of the second quarter earnings season, and the adjustments on three values of the Ibex 35 in the financial sector leave a clear message: the upside potential is practically exhausted. Both JB Capital Markets and Citi have raised the target prices for Mapfre, Banco Sabadell and Unicaja, but without changing their neutral recommendations. In all three cases, the implied revaluation margin is scarce or even negative.
Mapfre: a margin of 2.2% that does not convince
JB Capital Markets was the first to make a move. The firm has raised the target price for Mapfre from €4.50 to €4.55 per share. With the insurer trading around €4.45, the implied upside barely reaches 2.2%. A very tight margin that, according to analysts, does not justify a change in recommendation.
So far this year, Mapfre has accumulated a rise of 4.4%. The question for the investor is whether that small remaining potential is worth the wait until the second quarter results, which the company will present on 24 July.
Banco Sabadell: target price below the market
Citi has updated its valuation of Banco Sabadell, raising the target price from €3.00 to €3.15. However, the bank is currently trading around €3.19, which implies a negative potential of -1.3%. That is to say, the market is already discounting even more optimistic prospects than those of Citi.
Despite this, Sabadell has appreciated by 10.7% so far this year. The entity will also present its second quarter accounts on 24 July, and analysts will be attentive to see if the current price holds or if, on the contrary, corrections occur.
Unicaja: the largest gap, but the best performance
The case of Unicaja is the most striking. Citi has increased its target price from €2.75 to €2.98, but the shares of the Malaga bank are trading around €3.24. This leaves a gap of approximately 8% below the market price, the largest of the three values analysed.
Paradoxically, Unicaja has the best stock market performance of the three, with a revaluation close to 16% so far this year. The entity will present its results on 31 July, a week after its competitors. Until then, the market seems to bet that the figures will justify the current premium, although Citi analysts prefer to remain cautious.
These revisions come at a key moment. The publication of the second quarter results will allow us to verify whether the strength of the business and the good stock market performance of the entities are justified or whether, on the contrary, they open the door to new corrections by analysts. For the investor, the conclusion is clear: the immediate path is limited, and any movement will depend on what the accounts say.
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