An analysis by XTB reveals that the market of the champion country advanced by an average of 0.12% in the first session following the final. Spain experienced this in 2010: the Ibex fell by 0.68% after Iniesta's goal.
This Sunday, Spain faces Argentina in the World Cup final in New York. While fans dream of a second star, investors wonder what will happen to the Ibex 35 on Monday. The portal Estrategias de Inversión, supported by an analysis from Manuel Pinto, head of analysis at XTB Spain, reminds us that sports euphoria rarely infects the markets.
“When the bell rings for opening on Monday, euphoria will give way to another reality,” warns the portal. Investors will once again look at the geopolitical situation, corporate results, inflation, and central banks. History shows that winning a World Cup does not guarantee a stock market rise.
0.12% on average: the Stock Market does not celebrate titles
Pinto's report reviews the behaviour of the indices of champion countries since 2002. The conclusion is clear: on average, the market of the winner advanced by only 0.12% in the first session following the final. Moreover, the results are divided: three champions rose and three fell.
The best figure was recorded by Argentina after winning Qatar 2022, with a rise of 2.34%. At the opposite end, Brazil fell by 2.21% after being crowned champion in 2002. “Each World Cup is played in a different economic reality,” explains Pinto. “The trophy can change social mood, but it rarely alters companies' profit expectations.”
Spain already experienced this disconnection in 2010. After Iniesta's goal in South Africa, the Ibex 35 fell by 0.68% in the following session. In the twelve months that followed, the index accumulated a decline of 4.5%. The global financial crisis hampered any positive effect of the title.
A favourable context for the Ibex 35
Despite the precedents, the current context is more favourable. The Ibex 35 has accumulated a revaluation of nearly 11% in 2026 and is trading around 19,300 points, driven by banks, energy companies, and improved sentiment towards European assets.
For investors, the key is not to get carried away by emotion. “The market follows its own logic,” Pinto reminds us. Geopolitics, with the trade war and decisions from the Federal Reserve and the ECB, weigh more than a sports result. The IMF has already confirmed Spain as the fastest-growing economy in the eurozone in 2026, a fact that does support the rises.
In any case, analysts recommend keeping calm. If Spain wins, the Ibex could open with a slight boost on Monday, but the trend will be set by the corporate results of the second quarter and the upcoming monetary policy decisions. History shows that football and the Stock Market do not always play on the same team.
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