The USD/VND exchange rate has only depreciated by 0.1% so far in 2026, well below other Asian currencies, thanks to the management of the State Bank of Vietnam.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has managed to maintain remarkable exchange rate stability in the first half of 2026, despite external pressures from the restrictive policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran. According to data from VNDIRECT Securities, at the beginning of July, the central exchange rate was 25,202 VND/USD, with a depreciation of only 0.1% against the dollar since January. This figure contrasts with the 7.8% plunge of the Indonesian rupiah and the 5.7% drop of the Thai baht.
Internal Factors Counteracting External Pressure
The resilience of the VND is supported by several domestic pillars. Foreign direct investment (FDI) recorded a 61% increase in registered capital during the first half, according to VNDIRECT data. This capital flow helps balance the balance of payments and reduces the need for aggressive exchange rate intervention.
Moreover, VND interest rates remain high, attracting speculative capital and sustaining demand for the local currency. The SBV has combined open market operations (OMO), direct interventions, and currency swaps to manage liquidity without causing shocks. For retail investors, this means that foreign exchange operations in the interbank market remain predictable, without sharp jumps that would increase import costs.
Banking Liquidity: Gradual Improvement, but High Rates Persist
The liquidity of the Vietnamese banking system has shown signs of improvement, although it is still far from abundant. Analyst Hoang Thuy Luong from Vietcap Securities notes that interbank conditions are likely to continue improving in July due to the ongoing regulation by the SBV through OMO and currency swaps, along with the implementation of the rule that raised the maximum short-term capital ratio for medium and long-term loans (SMLR) from 30% to 40%.
However, the gap between credit growth and deposit mobilization has not significantly narrowed, so interest rates are unlikely to drop drastically in the third quarter. For companies seeking financing, this means that loans will remain expensive, although exchange rate stability reduces the risk of default in international transactions.
Outlook for the Second Half of 2026
Looking ahead to the second half, the dilemma for Vietnamese monetary policy will be to find a balance between supporting growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The head of Macroeconomics at VNDIRECT, Dinh Quang Hinh, expects the Fed to keep rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, which will keep the dollar strong in the short term. However, the
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