The Ibex 35 appreciates by 11.4% in 2026 compared to 4.9% for Argentina's Merval, while the Spanish risk premium stands at 46 basis points compared to Argentina's 420, which remains in 'junk bond' territory.
The stock market comparison between Spain and Argentina in 2026 shows a vast difference. While the Ibex 35 accumulates an appreciation of 11.4% for the year, the Argentine Merval index barely rises by 4.9%. The Spanish index trades around 19,275 points, very close to its historical maximum of 19,852 points reached on July 3, while the Argentine index hovers around 3,200,000 points, also far from its record of 3,353,007 points from June 11.
Risk premium and rating: two opposing worlds
The so-called Argentine 'country risk', measured against the ten-year US bond, stands at 420 basis points, compared to just 46 basis points for the Spanish risk premium relative to the German bund. However, Argentina has managed to reduce its differential by nearly 27% from 571 basis points at the end of 2025, while Spain's has slightly increased by 7% from 43 basis points.
In sovereign rating, the gap is even wider. The three major agencies rate Spanish debt with scores of 'A+' (S&P), 'A' (Fitch), and 'A3' (Moody's), all with a stable outlook. In contrast, Argentina remains in junk bond territory: S&P rates it as 'B-', Moody's as 'Caa1', and Fitch as 'B-', also with a stable outlook, on par with countries like Angola, Belize, or Pakistan.
Economic outlook and maturities
The Argentine Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, stated that if President Javier Milei secures a second term, they will aim for Argentina to achieve investment grade by 2031. For now, the country faces payments of 19.2 billion dollars (about 16.778 billion euros) in 2026, although Caputo assures that they are "overcomplied". Meanwhile, the IMF predicts that Argentina will be the top-performing Latin American economy, with GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
For the Spanish investor, this data confirms that Spanish public debt remains a safe asset in the European context, with a low risk premium and solid rating. In contrast, Argentine equities offer greater volatility and risk, although with potential opportunities if Milei's reforms consolidate macroeconomic stability.
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