XTB analysts warn that the escalation of hostilities between Iran and the United States has entered a new phase, centred on control of the Strait of Hormuz, which raises the risk of disruptions in crude oil supply and could undermine optimism in the markets.
The escalation of hostilities between Iran and the United States has entered a new phase that threatens to alter the rules of the game in financial markets. XTB analysts warn that the focus of the conflict has shifted towards the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategic routes for global oil trade, and that investors have not yet properly assessed the risks.
A truce that was only a pause
The analysis team at the broker emphasises that the truce reached between Washington and Tehran last June did not mark the end of the confrontation, but rather a temporary pause. Now, the contest has changed its target: while in the first phase the United States sought to weaken Iran's military capacity, the priority has shifted to controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran aims to use this route as its main tool for economic and geopolitical pressure, which increases the risk of disruptions in crude transport and a more persistent energy risk premium. "This is not a continuation of the war; it is a new conflict," summarise the analysts at XTB in their report.
The energy cushion has evaporated
The main difference compared to the first phase of the conflict, according to experts, lies in the vulnerability of the energy market. During the initial months, the impact on supply could be cushioned thanks to weak Chinese demand, the use of strategic reserves, and the surplus from some major producers. Today, that cushion has practically disappeared.
The strategic oil reserves of the United States are at their lowest level in over four decades, and OECD inventories have also fallen significantly. Furthermore, OPEC's additional production capacity has been notably reduced, limiting the margin to offset a prolonged disruption in global supply.
Additionally, many alternative routes for exporting oil while avoiding the Strait of Hormuz are already operating near their maximum capacity, meaning that a prolonged blockade would have a much greater impact on global supply than what was recorded during the initial months of the conflict.
Oil threatens optimism in the markets
While much of the market celebrates better-than-expected inflation data and corporate results that meet expectations, the conflict in the Middle East threatens to bring the focus back to energy prices. A sustained rise in crude could spike inflation expectations and disrupt the central banks' roadmap on interest rates.
XTB analysts believe that many investors continue to exhibit a false sense of security, interpreting the escalation as a mere continuation of the crisis from March. However, they warn that the scenario has completely changed and that the real risk does not solely reside in the conflict, but in investors underestimating it.
The bottleneck of refined fuels
As if that weren't enough, experts highlight a factor they believe is being underestimated: the bottleneck in refined fuels. Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia, along with reduced activity in Chinese refineries, are diminishing the global capacity to produce diesel, gasoline, or aviation fuel.
The issue is no longer solely the availability of oil but also focuses on the capacity to transform it into products that the global economy needs. For XTB, the market has yet to fully incorporate this change in scenario, which could generate new inflationary tensions in the coming months.
Investors should pay attention to the evolution of the conflict and the data on crude and refined product inventories, especially in the United States and OECD, to anticipate possible movements in energy prices and in the monetary policy of central banks.
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