The Ibex 35 nears 19,300 points, and the 2026 World Cup final against Argentina could be the final push to surpass the 20,000 barrier. A report from AJ Bell reveals that the stock markets of the finalists appreciate by an average of 59%.
The Spanish national football team plays the 2026 World Cup final against Argentina this Sunday. But it's not just the fans who have reasons to be nervous: the Ibex 35 is also anticipating a potential boost. The Spanish index is trading around 19,300 points, just 3.6% away from the psychological barrier of 20,000 points, a level it has never reached in its history.
A study by the broker AJ Bell, which analyses the World Cups since 1994, shows that the stock markets of the countries reaching the final appreciate by an average of 59% for the winner and 61% for the runner-up. This is significantly higher than the 27% typically recorded by the stock market of the host country. "The real boost comes to the markets of the teams competing in the final," explains Dan Coatsworth, an analyst at AJ Bell, in the report.
The precedent of 2010: a 10% rise in weeks
Spain already has its own precedent. In 2010, after winning the World Cup in South Africa, the Ibex 35 rose by 10% in just four weeks. During the tournament, the index advanced by 5%, and in the three weeks following the final on July 11, it added another 5%, nearing 10,500 points. In the four years that followed, the Spanish index appreciated by 24%.
Now the situation is even more favourable. Unlike in 2010, when Spain was still reeling from the financial crisis, the Spanish economy is growing above 2%, the unemployment rate has fallen to levels not seen in fifteen years, and the companies in the Ibex 35 are presenting healthy balance sheets. "This macroeconomic solidity multiplies the chances that the World Cup effect translates into a sustained rally," points out Coatsworth.
The halo effect of sponsors and investor confidence
The link between football and the stock market is not just a hunch. Major sponsoring companies of the teams, such as Iberdrola or Telefónica, tend to see their brand image strengthened when the team succeeds, and that confidence translates to the stock market. Furthermore, institutional investor confidence is, in part, a reflection of collective mood. A World Cup victory generates a sense of national pride that translates into a greater propensity to invest in domestic assets, especially in sectors like tourism, hospitality, or telecommunications.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of Spain winning the tournament to 60.8%, praising the "masterful tactical display" of coach Luis de la Fuente in the semi-final against France. If victory is confirmed, the Ibex 35 could surpass 20,000 points for the first time in its history, a level that has not been achieved even in the best moments of the last decade.
"Since 1994, only on two occasions has the host country's stock market outperformed that of the finalist. The decisive factor is the momentum of the national team," states the AJ Bell report.
It is wise not to count the chickens before they hatch: any macroeconomic shock — an unexpected rate hike, a geopolitical conflict — could dilute the positive effect. But if stability is maintained, winning the 2026 World Cup could be the catalyst that places the Ibex at a new historical peak. For investors, the recommendation is clear: if Spain wins, the Ibex 35 could be the big beneficiary in the coming weeks.
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