The Mexican Stock Exchange advances 1.53% this Thursday, reaching 54,226.93 points, in a session marked by optimism on Wall Street and the release of favourable employment data in the United States.
The main indicator of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), the S&P BMV IPC, closed Thursday's session with an increase of 1.53%, equivalent to 815.05 points, positioning itself at 54,226.93 units. This rise occurs in a context of mixed movements in global markets, with a negative bias in some places, but with Wall Street leading the gains.
Wall Street rises after employment data and the Fed
In the United States, the main stock indices closed in positive territory. The Dow Jones gained 0.80% (271.15 points) to reach 33,334.25 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.90% (121.55 points) to 13,558.10 points. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 advanced 0.85% (37.09 points) to 4,394.95 points, and the NYSE Composite added 1.10% (179.39 points) to 16,440.89 points.
The optimism on Wall Street has been fueled by initial unemployment claims in the United States, which fell by 15,000 to 214,000, its lowest level in ten weeks. This data reinforces the perception of a solid recovery in the US labour market, which has partially offset the impact of the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to Grupo Financiero Monex, global stock markets are assessing the start of increases in the Fed's benchmark rate, aimed at containing inflationary pressures. However, the favourable employment data maintains optimism about economic recovery, which has driven purchases in the markets.
Attention to geopolitical conflict and macro data
Investors are also closely monitoring the evolution of the geopolitical conflict, with particular attention to the phone call scheduled for tomorrow between the presidents of the United States and China. This dialogue could have significant implications for trade relations and global stability.
On the macroeconomic front, the day has been marked by the release of several relevant indicators. In Japan, machinery orders for January fell by 2.0%, in line with expectations. In the Eurozone, the final inflation for February stood at 5.9% year-on-year, slightly above the initially estimated 5.8%. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, up from the previous 0.5%, in a move anticipated by the market.
For the Mexican investor, the rise of the BMV represents a respite in an uncertain global environment. The evolution of employment data in the US and the Fed's decisions will be key for the upcoming sessions. Furthermore, attention will focus on the call between Biden and Xi Jinping, which could set the tone for bilateral relations and, therefore, for the markets.
Outlook: How far can the rally go?
The advance of the BMV occurs in a context of controlled volatility, with investors digesting the start of monetary tightening in the US and the impact of the conflict in Ukraine. The US employment data has been a balm, but inflation remains the main concern.
Monex analysts point out that, although optimism has returned to the markets, caution must prevail. The rate hike in the United Kingdom and expectations of further increases in the US could dampen risk appetite in the coming weeks. However, the strength of the US labour market offers a solid floor for the stock markets.
In this scenario, the BMV could continue its rally if macro data remains favourable and the geopolitical conflict does not escalate. Investors should be alert to upcoming references, such as the Fed's minutes and inflation indicators in Mexico, which will set the market's course in the short term.
This Thursday's session leaves a bittersweet taste: the rise is welcome, but uncertainty persists. What is clear is that, for now, US employment data has managed to calm investors' nerves, at least for a day.
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