The six major banks of the Ibex 35 (Santander, BBVA, Caixabank, Bankinter, Unicaja and Sabadell) are facing the publication of semi-annual results with tailwinds. RBC projects a pre-tax profit of €21.69 billion for Santander in 2026.
The escalation of tension in the Strait of Hormuz has returned volatility to the markets, but it has also highlighted sectors that can navigate geopolitical noise. In the Ibex 35, banking emerges as the leading candidate for tactical refuge ahead of the second quarter and semi-annual earnings season, which kicks off in the coming weeks.
The six banks in the Spanish index —Banco Santander, BBVA, Caixabank, Bankinter, Unicaja and Banco Sabadell— have accumulated 22 annual highs so far in 2026, a record that evidences investor appetite for the sector. Although this week the stock markets have corrected, analysts maintain a positive outlook.
Santander, the Beacon of Spanish Banking According to RBC
The Canadian entity RBC has published a report projecting a pre-tax profit of €21.69 billion for Banco Santander for the fiscal year 2026, and a net attributable profit of €16.23 billion. The forecasts remain virtually unchanged compared to previous years, according to the investment bank.
RBC notes that the boost from foreign exchange revenues —especially in Mexico and Brazil— is partly offset by higher costs and impairments in Argentina. Nevertheless, the entity chaired by Ana Botín remains one of the consensus favourites among analysts.
Our adjusted pre-tax profit also remains virtually unchanged, as the boost to revenues from foreign exchange is largely offset by higher costs and impairments.
For investors, these figures serve as a benchmark: if Santander meets expectations, it could pull the rest of the sector along. The results publication is scheduled for the end of July, and analysts expect the guidance from the entities to clarify doubts about the evolution of the interest margin.
Real Estate Also Appreciates as a Safe Asset
Outside of banking, the Spanish real estate sector is gaining traction as a defensive investment. The strength of demand and financial rigor consolidate real estate as a strategic long-term refuge, according to the consulted analysis reports. In a higher interest rate environment, success translates into selectivity: prime REITs, residential properties, and new growth niches (shopping centres, offices, hotels) are the most sought-after segments.
Individual investors may find opportunities in stocks like Telefónica, which according to technical analysis has the potential to reach €3.736 per share if it closes above €3.584. Aperam, the stainless steel spin-off of ArcelorMittal listed on the Continuous Market, is also noteworthy: after surpassing €45.98, the bullish target is set at €50.90 per share, with the MACD showing upward crosses.
The recommendation for readers interested in the stock market is clear: the earnings season starting in July will be the real thermometer. The banks of the Ibex 35, with Santander at the forefront, offer visibility in a scenario of geopolitical uncertainty. However, self-education and analysis remain the best compass to navigate through volatility.
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