Tuesday's vote in Congress anticipates a rejection of the 2027-2029 deficit targets, with Junts, PP, and Vox against. The Government maintains its plan to present the public accounts, but the path is complicated.
The Congress of Deputies votes this Tuesday on the stability path for the period 2027-2029, a preliminary step before presenting the General State Budgets for 2027. Everything points to it being rejected by the votes against from Junts, along with PP and Vox. The rejection anticipates a complicated processing for the first accounts of the legislature, although the Government maintains its intention to present them within the usual deadlines.
Deficit of 1.5% in 2029 and record spending cap
The stability path reproduces the schedule for reducing the deficit outlined in the fiscal and structural plan: 1.8% of GDP in 2027, 1.6% in 2028, and 1.5% in 2029. Along with the path, the Government informs Congress of the non-financial spending limit, set at 226.032 billion euros, a record figure that does not require approval from the Cortes.
According to the Minister of Finance, Arcadi España, this spending cap, which is 6.6% higher than this year's national spending (or 4.6% if European funds from 2026 are excluded), will allow for the preparation of a budget that is "ambitious in social terms and responsible in fiscal terms," according to statements included in the official communiqué.
What happens if the path is rejected?
If, as expected, Congress rejects the stability path, the Government will have to approve it again in the Council of Ministers within a month, either with the same text or a new one. In the latter case, it would have to go back through the Council of Fiscal and Financial Policy.
If Congress approves it but the Senate vetoes it, the text will return to the Lower House, which can lift that veto. On the other hand, if both proposals are rejected by the Cortes, the targets agreed with Brussels will come into effect, which maintain the same deficit targets but eliminate the budgetary margin for the autonomous communities, which would have to achieve fiscal balance.
The Government's proposal reserves a deficit limit of 0.1% of GDP for the autonomous communities in 2027, 2028, and 2029, which means a spending margin of 5.849 billion euros during that period. For readers interested in public economics, the rejection of the path implies that the autonomous communities would lose that fiscal cushion, being forced to adjust their accounts without a deficit margin. The Government will have a month to redo its proposal, and if it fails to reach consensus, Brussels will impose stricter rules for the autonomous communities. The key date is the vote this Tuesday; the outcome will set the pace for the budget processing.
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