The economist and leader of La Libertad Avanza in La Pampa, Ravier, stated that the official dollar could reach $1,700-$1,800 in months, but the Government categorically denied it.
The Argentine Government responded to the statements made by economist Agustín Ravier, who suggested that the official dollar could be between 1,700 and 1,800 pesos in the coming months. Sources from Casa Rosada described his comments as a mistake and assured that there would be no changes in the exchange rate strategy.
Ravier, a leader of La Libertad Avanza in La Pampa and an official responsible for conveying the voice of President Javier Milei, made these statements during an interview on the government-affiliated streaming platform Carajo!. There, he downplayed the possibility of a devaluation similar to those of 2002 or 2019, but admitted that an exchange rate at those values was a possibility.
The statements caused discomfort within the Executive, especially as they came days after Economy Minister Luis Caputo presented the draft reform of the Fiscal Innocence Law, aimed at encouraging the influx of dollars into the financial system.
According to sources from Casa Rosada cited by local media, the official stance is clear: “There is nothing; Ravier was mistaken.” In the upper echelons of the Government, they sought to mitigate the impact of the economist's comments.
However, Ravier's estimate aligns with the projections from the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) from the Central Bank, which gathers forecasts from consultancies, banks, and private economists. The REM often reflects expectations of gradual devaluation, although not as pronounced.
The statements were also made known on the eve of the visit from the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva. In its latest report on Argentina, the organization suggested abandoning the exchange rate as the main anchor of the economy and moving towards an inflation target scheme.
This is not the first time Ravier has sparked controversy since taking office. Days ago, he acknowledged that the decline in economic activity was “notable,” although he emphasized that the country was experiencing “the best 18 months.”
For investors and analysts, the Government's reaction aims to maintain calm in the exchange markets, avoiding speculation that could push the parallel dollar higher. The official strategy so far has been based on a crawling peg of 2% per month, but inflationary pressures and a lack of reserves raise doubts about its sustainability.
The lingering question is whether the denial will be enough to contain expectations, or if the market will interpret Ravier's words as a signal of what is truly being discussed in the Executive. Georgieva's visit and negotiations with the IMF will be key to defining the exchange rate direction in the coming months.
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