The ECB's negotiated wage indicator stands at 2.7% for the first quarter of 2027, with no significant changes compared to 2026. The coverage of agreements reaches 28.4% of workers in the participating countries.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with data from collective agreements signed up to the first week of July 2026. The negotiated wage pressure, once one-off payments are smoothed out, is at 2.3% for the whole of 2026 — with a coverage of 44.3% of employees — and at 2.7% for the first quarter of 2027, with a coverage of 28.4%.
The time horizon of the indicator has been extended to March 2027. As new agreements are signed and the coverage of agreements reaching 2027 increases, the ECB expects to extend it to the second quarter of that year in the next update in September 2026.
Compared to the June 2026 publication, the indicator with smoothed one-off payments remains virtually unchanged for 2026. The new agreements recorded have not significantly altered the assessment of negotiated wage pressures for this year.
The ECB distinguishes between three versions of the indicator. The so-called headline wage tracker — which smooths one-off payments over time — is the most suitable for describing quarterly or monthly dynamics. The unsmoothed indicator, on the other hand, better reflects annual evolution. The third variant directly excludes one-off payments.
According to data published on July 29, 2026, the unsmoothed indicator shows stable negotiated wage growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027. The same figure — 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 — is reported by the indicator that excludes one-off payments.
The ECB reminds us that the main indicator may be subject to revisions and that the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only reflects the information currently available on active collective agreements.
Quarterly evolution in 2026 and 2027
Broken down by quarters, the main indicator — with smoothed one-off payments — averages 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026, 2.1% in the second, and 2.6% in both the third and fourth quarters. This increase throughout the year is due to the fading mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments made in 2024, which did not recur in 2025. That effect practically disappears in the second half of 2026.
For the first quarter of 2027, the main indicator stands at 2.7%, indicating stable negotiated wage pressure at the turn of the year and a currently limited role of one-off payments.
In the unsmoothed version, the quarterly averages are: 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026, 2.6% in the second, and 2.5% in both the third and fourth. The indicator that excludes one-off payments remains stable around 2.6% throughout 2026. Both reach 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027.
Coverage of agreements
The employee coverage for 2026 stands at 47.0% in the first quarter, 45.7% in the second, 42.5% in the third, and 42.0% in the fourth. For the first quarter of 2027, coverage drops to 28.4%, reflecting that there are still many agreements pending to be signed for that year.
The ECB warns that the indicator does not precisely track the rate of negotiated wage growth and that deviations can be expected over time. For a more comprehensive assessment of wage evolution in the euro area, it refers to its general macroeconomic analysis.
For analysts and social agents, this data confirms that negotiated wage pressures remain contained and stable, with no signs of acceleration or sharp deceleration. The evolution in the coming quarters will depend on the signing of new agreements and the evolution of inflation and productivity.
The next update of the indicator, scheduled for September 2026, will extend the forward-looking horizon to the second quarter of 2027 and will allow for a more refined reading of wage dynamics in the eurozone.
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