The Ibex 35 started the week with a slight drop of 0.26% that keeps it at 19,800.60 points, nearing historical highs. Iberdrola, Repsol, and ACS led the declines, while Amadeus, IAG, and Grifols supported the index.
The Ibex 35 began the week with a minimal decrease of 0.26%, enough for the Spanish selective index to close at 19,800.60 points, a level that consolidates its position close to the historical highs reached in June. The session, with low volume and flat oil prices, reflected a market without major shocks but also without clear catalysts to drive a larger increase.
Investors digested the start of a week packed with political and macroeconomic events in Spain, including the meeting of the Fiscal and Financial Policy Council to set stability targets for the 2027 Budget. In Europe, the trend was similar: the London Ftse 100 rose by 0.1%, the Paris Cac 40 advanced by 0.2%, and the Frankfurt Dax fell by 0.1%.
Iberdrola and Repsol drag down, Amadeus and IAG pull up
Within the Ibex, movements were mixed. Iberdrola (-2.3%), Repsol (-2.2%), and ACS (-2.1%) led the declines, while Amadeus (+1.6%), IAG (+1.3%), and Grifols (+1.1%) pulled the index up. The banking sector remained stable: Santander and BBVA closed flat, and CaixaBank fell by 0.4%. Telefónica, on the other hand, gained 0.8% buoyed by expectations of a rate cut in September.
The session unfolded within a very narrow range, with barely 25 points between the intraday high and low. This behaviour reflects a lack of buying conviction, but also the absence of significant selling pressures. For investors, the key is that the Ibex remains anchored in the upper zone without showing signs of exhaustion, although the low volume invites caution.
Stable oil and risk premium at lows
The external context also did not exert pressure. Brent, the benchmark oil in Europe, closed virtually flat at 72.1 dollars, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 0.3% to 68.9 dollars. Stable oil benefits the Ibex: it does not penalise airlines or tourism, but neither does it sink oil companies.
In fixed income, Spanish ten-year public debt eased to offer a yield of 3.4%, a decrease of 0.6% during the session. The risk premium narrowed to 90 basis points, the lowest level since early 2022. In the currency market, the euro lost some momentum and was trading at 1.1419 dollars, weighed down by caution ahead of US inflation data to be released this week.
For individual investors, the current situation invites calm. The Ibex 35 has now accumulated seven consecutive sessions hovering around 19,800 points, a behaviour reminiscent of spring 2015 when the index stagnated before undergoing a correction. However, the macro context today is more benign, with a low risk premium and a Spanish economy with a lower structural deficit. Nevertheless, the buying inertia of passive funds has inflated the valuations of large stocks like Iberdrola and Amadeus, which are trading at multiples above their five-year average. Trading volume in the Continuous Market has fallen by 12% year-on-year, suggesting that the market is expensive but investors have no attractive alternatives.
Staying at 19,800 points with low volume and no major corporate news reflects more inertia than real conviction.
The earnings reports for the first half of the year, which will start to be published next week, could be the catalyst that breaks the monotony. If the big players in the Ibex (Santander, BBVA, Inditex) exceed expectations, the pull could lead the index to surpass 20,000 points. But if the guidance is weak, the correction could be swift. In a well-diversified portfolio, it is advisable not to make radical moves, but to monitor stops on stocks like Iberdrola or ACS, which have surged in recent weeks.
The key technical support is at the 50-session moving average, located at 19,500 points, which provides a solid floor. The daily RSI, in neutral territory (55), leaves room for an attack on 20,000 points without signs of overbought conditions. Next week will be decisive to confirm whether the Ibex has the momentum to continue rising or if it needs a breather.
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