Bankinter maintains Indra in its simplified portfolio of five Spanish stocks, with a weight of 15% and a buy recommendation. The entity sets a target price of €58 per share and considers that the recent stock punishment has been excessive.
Indra remains one of Bankinter's preferred stocks for Spanish equities. The entity keeps the technology and defence company in its simplified model portfolio, the most concentrated, with a weight of 15%, only behind BBVA, Santander, and Naturgy, and in line with Merlin Properties.
Bankinter maintains a recommendation of buy on Indra and a target price of €58.00 per share. The company's market capitalisation amounts to €9.532 billion, according to the entity's report. Among its main shareholders are SEPI, with 28%; SAPA, with 7.94%; and Amber Capital, with 7.24%.
Growth forecasts for 2026
Bankinter's estimates point to a significant improvement in Indra's EBITDA in 2026. The entity expects it to reach €864 million, compared to €641 million in 2025, representing a growth of 34.8%. The ordinary net profit, on the other hand, would rise from €436 million to €444 million, with a more moderate advance of 1.8%.
The profile of Indra within the portfolio is different from that of Naturgy or the banks. It is not a dividend-focused thesis, as the estimated yield for 2026 is only 0.7%, but rather on operational growth and exposure to defence. Bankinter estimates a 2026 P/E ratio of 19.4 times, a valuation it considers attractive compared to the European sector when taking into account the expected growth rates.
Why does Bankinter maintain Indra despite the declines?
Bankinter keeps Indra in its portfolio despite the stock's recent poor performance. The entity believes that the declines in June in the defence sector were excessive and that the current valuation offers an attractive entry point. According to its analysis, the fundamentals of the sector and the company remain intact, so the stock punishment would not be justified by a corresponding real deterioration of the business.
The negative trigger was the correction of the European defence sector, dragged down by Rheinmetall, after it was revealed that the German Ministry of Defence would not proceed with the F126 frigate project. Bankinter argues that the real financial impact is substantially lower than the declines experienced by companies in the sector. For the entity, Indra offers an unusual combination: exposure to defence, expected growth close to 20% per year in profit, and multiples lower than those of the European sector.
Results and Strategic Plan 2030, upcoming milestones
Bankinter is focusing on the publication of second-quarter results, scheduled for 23 July. The entity believes that this presentation could provide new insights into the Strategic Plan 2030, which is expected to be published by the end of the year. The starting point is favourable: the figures from the first quarter already showed the good momentum that both the defence sector and the company itself are experiencing.
For the market, the key will be to see if Indra can transform the growth in portfolio, revenues, and EBITDA into a more visible improvement in net profit and EPS in the coming years. The market consensus reflects an average target price of €58, although some firms place it higher. For investors, the question is whether the discount compared to European peers will close as the company executes its strategic plan.
Bankinter estimates that Indra's defence segment trades at a 2027 P/E ratio of 19.0 times, compared to a sector average of 23.0 times. In its view, this discount is excessive considering that the estimated growth rates are around 20% per year in net profit between 2025 and 2028, in line with the sector average. The message is clear: Bankinter does not see Indra as a company that should trade at a significant discount if it maintains a similar growth dynamic.
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