The Ibex 35 starts the session with declines of over 1%, while in Asia, the Korean Kospi rises more than 6%. The moderation of inflation in the US encourages optimism, but geopolitical tension in the Middle East keeps caution in place.
European stock markets face a new session with a delicate balance. The Eurostoxx 50 remains flat, with a slight advance of 0.06%, while the Ibex 35 opens with declines of over 1%. In the United States, futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rise by 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively. In Asia, the Korean Kospi soars more than 6%, buoyed by US inflation data.
The market focus shifts towards the earnings season, which gains prominence this week. Investors are evaluating the accounts of large companies, while the geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East weighs on sentiment. According to analysts, any disappointment in the figures could have a greater-than-usual impact.
Earnings reports take the lead
The earnings campaign accelerates, placing US banking and artificial intelligence as market drivers. Bankinter highlights that entities such as Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, or BlackRock are showing growth that supports the positive evolution of the financial sector. Goldman Sachs, according to Renta 4 Banco, is one of the big winners thanks to the dynamism of capital markets.
In Europe, the spotlight is on ASML, whose accounts far exceed expectations. Both Bankinter and Link Gestión executive Juan José Fernández-Figares believe these results can support the European tech sector, given the company's relevance in the semiconductor ecosystem. The Dutch firm gains 27% more and strengthens its unique position in the world.
For investors, this means the tech sector maintains its appeal, but it is advisable to watch valuations. The outlook for the second half of the year will be key in determining whether current prices are justified.
Artificial intelligence remains the major catalyst
Artificial intelligence re-emerges as one of the major market themes. Bankinter reminds us that technology continues to lead profit growth forecasts during this earnings season, with expectations far exceeding those of other sectors. Renta 4 Banco highlights that AI-related software continues to see strong price increases, reflecting growing demand.
Investors are also awaiting upcoming reports from companies like TSMC, considered a benchmark for measuring the real state of investments linked to AI. The demand for chips and artificial intelligence solutions shows no signs of slowing down, which could further boost the sector.
For interested readers, this implies that AI remains a central theme in investment portfolios, but with risks of overvaluation. TSMC's results will be a key thermometer in the coming weeks.
Inflation offers relief… but does not clear all doubts
The US inflation data published this Tuesday was better than expected and significantly reduced expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the market remains cautious. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh insisted that the institution has "no tolerance" for persistently high inflation and reminded that the June figure is "just an isolated data point," avoiding anticipating movements in upcoming meetings.
This Wednesday, investors will be watching the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June in the United States, as well as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. These references will help gauge the state of the US economy. Link Gestión believes no significant news is to be expected from Warsh's new appearance before the Senate.
For savers, the moderation of inflation is good news, but the Fed does not commit to rate cuts. More data will be needed to confirm the trend.
The Middle East remains the main focus of uncertainty
Although inflation has improved investor sentiment, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to generate caution. The conflict in the region adds volatility to the markets, especially in sectors such as energy and defense. Analysts recommend maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate geopolitical risks.
This Wednesday's session will be marked by the publication of the US PPI and the Fed's appearances. Investors will also closely follow the evolution of tensions in the Middle East. The Ibex 35 could regain ground if macroeconomic data and earnings reports are supportive, but uncertainty remains high.
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