The entity assigns the gas company a weight of 20% in its simplified portfolio of five Spanish values, with a buy recommendation and a target price of €29.80. The estimated dividend for 2026 reaches 6.5%.
Naturgy has become the quintessential defensive piece of Bankinter's simplified model portfolio. The entity has decided to maintain the gas company with a weight of 20% within a selection of five Spanish values, surpassing in weighting Indra and Merlin Properties, although behind BBVA and Santander. Its role within the whole is clear: to provide stability, visibility of results, and a dividend yield that exceeds the market average.
Bankinter maintains a recommendation of buy on Naturgy, with a target price of €29.80 per share. Among the main shareholders of the company are CriteriaCaixa, with 29%, IFM, with 16%, Corporación Financiera Alba, with 5%, and Sonatrach, with 4%. The free float stands at around 47%, following the increase in liquidity resulting from recent share placements.
Moderate but visible growth in 2026
Bankinter's estimates point to a moderately positive evolution of Naturgy's main figures in 2026. The EBITDA would reach €5.473 billion, compared to €5.334 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 2.6%. The net profit attributed would be €2.073 billion, up 2.5%, while the EPS would advance to €2.14.
The expected growth is not high, but it is visible. Naturgy does not appear in Bankinter's portfolio due to a thesis of strong profit expansion, but rather for its ability to sustain results, generate cash, and maintain a high return for shareholders. With an estimated P/E ratio of 12.9 times for 2026 and a dividend yield of 6.5%, the stock maintains a defensive utility profile with recurring returns.
For the investor seeking stability, this data indicates that Naturgy offers a balanced risk-reward relationship, without shocks, but with an attractive remuneration.
The keys to Bankinter's bet
Bankinter justifies Naturgy's presence in the five-value portfolio by four main factors: the favourable evolution of networks and renewables, the visibility of the dividend, the improvement of market liquidity, and the possibility of exceeding profit targets for the year.
The first argument is operational. The entity believes that the networks and renewables divisions will sustain the group's results in a context of stable margins in marketing and lower expected results in the energy management division. In other words, the thesis shifts towards more regulated, visible businesses that are less dependent on the volatility of energy markets.
The second argument is the dividend policy. Naturgy establishes a minimum DPA of €1.80 per share for 2026 and €1.90 per share for 2027. At current prices in the report, this implies a yield of 6.5% for 2026 and 6.9% for 2027. Bankinter believes that the financial structure allows for these payments to be sustained, with a net debt/EBITDA of 2.3 times by the end of 2025.
Naturgy is the defensive piece of Bankinter's portfolio: lower beta, high dividend, and a financial structure capable of sustaining shareholder remuneration.
For the minority shareholder, this translates into an unusual certainty in the stock market: knowing that, barring catastrophe, they will receive a growing dividend well covered by the company's cash flows.
Dividend and liquidity: the two main attractions
Within Bankinter's simplified portfolio, Naturgy is the stock with the highest dividend yield. The estimate for 2026 is 6.5%, clearly above BBVA, Santander, Indra, and Merlin Properties. This makes the stock particularly relevant for investors seeking returns via cash and lower relative volatility.
Moreover, the dividend has superior visibility compared to the average due to the commitment to a minimum remuneration. The expected increase in DPA from €1.77 in 2025 to €1.80 in 2026 is not aggressive, but coherent with a mature, regulated company with low structural growth. The key is that the dividend is sustainable without straining the balance sheet.
Another relevant point for Bankinter is the increase in the stock's liquidity. Following recent placements of treasury stock and sales by BlackRock/GIP and CVC, Naturgy's free float has increased to approximately 47%. The entity does not expect new sales of shares by current shareholders, which reduces one of the technical risks that had weighed on the stock price.
The share structure remains concentrated, with CriteriaCaixa as the main shareholder. This profile may partially limit liquidity compared to other large companies in the Ibex, but the recent improvement allows for smoother trading. For the investor looking to take positions, greater liquidity reduces the cost of entry and exit, a factor to consider in long-term strategies.
In short, Naturgy consolidates as the conservative option within Bankinter's portfolio, offering an attractive dividend and visibility that few Ibex stocks can match. The market will now await the evolution of its regulated divisions and the company's ability to maintain its promise of return to shareholders.
You may also like
