Oil rises to $84 due to the escalation between Iran and the US, while markets reach new highs. Experts warn that investors are not factoring in risks such as a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz or the invasion of Taiwan.
Global markets are seeing gains, with indices like the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and Ibex 35 trading near their historical highs. However, behind this optimism lie risks that the markets seem to be ignoring, according to analysts in the sector.
The price of oil has surged to $84 per barrel, driven by the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world's oil passes, or a blockade of the Red Sea by the Houthis could spike oil prices and trigger a global energy crisis.
Additionally, Ukraine has destroyed approximately 50% of Russia's oil infrastructure, further reducing the available supply. The combination of these factors could have a direct impact on Western economies, which are highly dependent on oil.
“If we scratch the surface a bit, we see that we are on shaky ground: there are many risks that the markets are not pricing in,” say sources from the financial sector.
The so-called FOMO (fear of missing out) is at its peak, and retail investors are entering high-profile trades without properly assessing the risks. A recent example is SpaceX's IPO, which has fallen 20% since its debut, despite warnings that the company was overvalued. Nevertheless, many investors bought in, attracted by the space future, without considering that the company is still burning a lot of cash and will need to show results in the coming quarters.
Moreover, according to the Financial Times, both Russia and China are developing systems to disable Elon Musk's satellites, a risk that the market is not valuing but which poses a priority target for these military powers.
Geopolitics: The Elephant in the Room
The US attack on Iran has opened a new front of uncertainty. Some analysts fear that China may take advantage of the situation to invade Taiwan, following Russia's precedent in Ukraine. Although this is not the most likely scenario, the possibility exists, and the markets are not pricing it in.
So far, Western economies remain strong, and corporate results are positive, but investors should start diversifying and be clear about when and how to exit the market if the situation deteriorates.
For those looking to learn how to manage these risks, specialized courses such as the Practical Investment and Trading Course help students identify warning signs and design exit strategies.
In summary, the current context demands caution: investors should not be carried away by euphoria and must closely monitor the evolution of oil prices and geopolitical conflicts, which can change the course of the markets in a matter of days.
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