Spot gold prices rise 0.3% to $4,188 per ounce, driven by falling oil prices and weak US employment data, which reduce expectations of Fed rate hikes.
Spot gold is trading around $4,188 per ounce this Monday, with a slight increase of 0.3% at the Asian open. The precious metal has recorded its first weekly gain since May, after investors lowered their expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue tightening monetary policy.
The main catalyst for this recovery is the fall in crude oil prices, which have seen their largest quarterly drop since 2020. Brent crude has become cheaper due to increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, following a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran, and signs of greater supply from OPEC+.
The drop in oil eases inflation and favours gold
The decline in crude reduces global inflationary pressures. This benefits assets like gold, which do not generate yields and are attractive in a low or stable interest rate environment. More moderate inflation diminishes the need for the Fed to continue raising rates, boosting demand for the yellow metal as a safe haven.
Weak employment data in the United States has also contributed to cooling expectations of monetary tightening. According to the latest official figures, job creation has slowed in recent months, reinforcing the thesis that the Fed may pause its rate hike cycle.
“The US labour market is losing momentum, and that reduces the pressure on the Fed to act,” analysts in the sector note.
Spot silver has also benefited from this environment, rising 1.1% to $63.12 per ounce. Platinum and palladium recorded similar gains, while the US dollar index remained virtually unchanged after falling 0.3% last week.
Trump's maneuvers against the Fed boost gold's appeal
The political context in the United States adds another supportive factor for gold. President Donald Trump and his allies are intensifying efforts to restructure the leadership of the Federal Reserve, according to sources familiar with the matter. Senior officials and external advisors are working to remove several members of the Board of Governors in Washington, aiming to pave the way for candidates aligned with the president.
This move comes after the Supreme Court blocked an attempt last week to remove Governor Lisa Cook. The independence of the Fed is in question, and investors interpret these maneuvers as part of a strategy of “betting on currency devaluation,” whereby gold acts as a hedge against inflation and the growing debt of developed economies.
In the last months of 2025, the constant challenges from the Trump administration to the central bank's autonomy had already contributed to soaring gold prices. Now, the scenario is repeating itself, with the precious metal trading near historic highs.
What gold's stabilisation means for investors
For Spanish investors, the evolution of gold in Asian markets is a key indicator. If the upward trend consolidates, funds and ETFs linked to the precious metal could continue to appreciate. The decline of the dollar and weakness in US employment are signals pointing to a favourable environment for gold in the short term.
In the local market, Saigon Jewelry Company has set the price of SJC gold in Vietnam between 147.5 and 151.4 million VND per ounce (buy-sell), reflecting the upward trend in the region. Analysts recommend maintaining exposure to gold as diversification, but warn that volatility could increase if the Fed surprises with a rate hike.
The next milestone for the market will be the Fed meeting at the end of July, where new rate projections will be revealed. Until then, gold will continue to dance to the tune of oil and political tensions in Washington.
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