Ibex 35 futures are trading with moderate declines at the start of the week, on a day marked by the publication of macro data in Europe and the US and the expectation of a positive earnings season.
Ibex 35 futures began Monday's session with slight declines, in line with the mixed opening of Asian markets. Investors are focusing on the upcoming earnings season, which is expected to be positive, while the drop in oil prices offers some relief against inflationary pressures.
Oil and OPEC+ set the tone
Crude prices are rising slightly despite OPEC+ agreeing to further increase its production targets starting in August. The recovery of exports through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key points for global crude traffic, could increase global supply and ease tensions in the energy market.
For investors, cheaper oil reduces companies' costs and can boost consumption, but caution persists due to geopolitical uncertainty. The market is closely monitoring any signals regarding demand trends and OPEC+ policy.
Macro agenda: Europe and the US set the pace
Today's session is packed with macroeconomic references. In the Eurozone, producer prices and retail sales are being published, key data for gauging inflation and consumption. Germany is providing factory orders, a leading indicator of industrial activity. In the afternoon, the US composite PMI will close the day.
These indicators can move the market: if producer prices rise more than expected, it would reinforce the idea that the ECB will keep rates high; if retail sales falter, doubts about economic recovery would grow. Investors should be alert to deviations from consensus.
Notable corporate movements
On the corporate front, several companies are in the spotlight. Utilities are asking the Insurance Consortium to cover the cost of the blackout, an issue that directly affects shareholders in the sector. Zegona plans to replace Vantage's towers with those of Cellnex and American Tower, according to Bloomberg, which could reorder the telecommunications infrastructure market in Spain.
Cellnex has renewed its framework agreement with Vodafone Spain for a period of 10 years, according to Reuters, consolidating its position in the sector. Additionally, California's AVE is advancing and attracting Spanish construction companies like ACS, Ferrovial, and Copasa, according to Expansión, opening opportunities in the US market. Finally, Audax has temporarily suspended its share buyback program, a move that analysts interpret as a sign of financial prudence.
For shareholders, this news implies changes in the outlook for each company: Cellnex strengthens its client portfolio; Spanish construction companies gain international exposure; and Audax opts to preserve cash in an uncertain environment.
Key points for investors this week
The week begins with a dense agenda, but the focus will be on the earnings season starting in the US and Europe. Investors expect companies to show strength in their accounts, especially in sectors like technology, banking, and consumer goods. However, geopolitical uncertainty and the evolution of oil prices may generate volatility.
The market will also be attentive to OPEC+ statements and any news regarding the conflict in Ukraine. The meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the NATO summit, scheduled for this week, could mark a turning point in peace negotiations, which would have global economic implications.
In summary, investors should remain calm and avoid hasty decisions. Macro data and corporate earnings will dictate the course of the upcoming sessions. The recommendation is to diversify and pay attention to sectors most exposed to energy and inflation.
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