The Ibex 35 closes Friday's session with a slight gain of 0.32%, but accumulates a weekly decline of 2.35% weighed down by the military escalation between the United States and Iran. The index remains just below 19,400 points.
The Ibex 35 has ended a week of strong turbulence with a slight rebound of 0.32% this Friday, insufficient to erase the accumulated drop. The Spanish index stands at 19,384.7 points, far from the historical high of 19,852.40 points reached just seven days ago. The weekly drop, the worst in two months, has a clear culprit: the military escalation between the United States and Iran.
The trade war and bombings mark the week
The order from US President Donald Trump to suspend trade with Spain has been the trigger for a black week. This has been compounded by the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, with US bombings against Iran between Tuesday and Thursday. Washington justifies the attacks as a response to Iranian actions against ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has responded by launching missiles and drones against US interests in the region. Tehran authorities warned on Friday that they could also attack Israel if the bombings continue. The death toll has risen to at least fourteen dead and nearly 80 injured in the two days of attacks.
“Our investment strategy remains optimistic for the next month, although the chances of a much more negative scenario have increased,” said Sebastian Paris Horvitz, director of Analysis at La Banque Postale Asset Management (LBP AM).
Oil drops while European markets show mixed signs
In this context of geopolitical tension, the Brent barrel, a reference in Europe, has dropped by 0.8% at close, down to $75.7. The US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen by 1.2%, down to $71.2. Meanwhile, fixed income has seen the yield on the Spanish 10-year bond decrease to 3.506%, reducing the risk premium to 44.92 basis points.
European markets closed with mixed signs. The German DAX 30 was the only index to record losses, down 0.2%. The French CAC 40 rose by 0.15%; the British FTSE 100 by 0.24%; and the Italian MIB by 0.44%. The euro remained stable against the dollar, at $1.1432 per euro.
Among the Ibex values, the biggest gainers were ArcelorMittal (+6.27%), Acerinox (+3.09%), Cellnex (+1.9%), Colonial (+1.78%) and BBVA (+1.54%). On the downside, Indra led the losses with a drop of 4.33%, down to €47.45, following a UBS report that lowered its target price from €68 to €66, although it maintains a buy recommendation. It was followed by Sacyr (-1.33%), Fluidra (-1%), Grifols (-0.98%) and Inditex (-0.79%).
“With the geopolitical focus still open, the earnings season will be the main protagonist and will allow us to see if profit growth continues to support markets that remain close to historical highs,” explained Manuel Pinto, head of Analysis at XTB.
The earnings season, hope for resuming gains
The market is hopeful that the second-quarter earnings season, starting in the coming weeks, will provide new catalysts to resume the upward trend. The attack on the psychological barrier of 20,000 points is postponed, at least until the publication of the next corporate balances. Investors will be attentive to the figures from large companies to confirm that profit growth remains solid.
In the realm of safe-haven assets, gold has fallen by 0.6%, below $4,100 per ounce. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has advanced by 1.9%, hovering around $64,000. Volatility remains the dominant trend, and experts recommend caution in the face of a geopolitical scenario that is still unresolved.
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