Gold Slightly Falls but Remains Near Two-Week Highs

Spot gold is down 0.19% to $4,167 per ounce, although it remains near its highest level in two weeks. The market reduces expectations of a Fed rate hike following a weak employment report.

The price of spot gold stands at $4,167.19 per ounce, after falling 0.19% in Monday's session. The precious metal remains close to the two-week high reached last week, when it rose over 2% and broke a four-week streak of losses.

The August gold futures contract in the United States is trading at $4,186.80 per ounce, according to data from goldprice.org.

Weak Employment Curbs Rate Hike Expectations

The recovery in gold has been driven by the US employment report released last Friday, which showed job creation lower than expected in June, along with a downward revision of the figures for the previous two months. This data suggests a slowdown in the labour market, which reduces expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market now estimates a 55% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting, down from over 60% before the employment report was published. For gold, less restrictive monetary policy outlooks are a favourable factor, as being a non-yielding asset, a lower opportunity cost increases its appeal.

Attention on Fed Minutes and JPMorgan Forecasts

This week, investors are focusing on the minutes from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on June 16 and 17, which are scheduled for release on Wednesday. This will be the first meeting chaired by the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, so the market will closely monitor the officials' assessments on inflation, economic growth, and rate outlooks.

From the forecasting perspective, JPMorgan believes that demand for gold from key customer groups may not be as strong as expected, limiting short-term upside potential. The bank predicts that gold prices could reach around $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and rise to $4,500 in the fourth quarter.

Mixed Demand in Physical Markets

In the physical gold market, trends are mixed across regions. In India, demand weakened again as prices recovered from their lowest level in three months. In contrast, purchases in China improved slightly, providing some support to the market.

For individual investors, the evolution of gold continues to largely depend on the signals emitted by the Fed regarding interest rates. If this week's minutes confirm a less aggressive tone, gold could find new momentum. For now, the precious metal remains in a narrow range, awaiting clearer catalysts.