The leading cryptocurrency has recorded five consecutive days of gains and has broken the resistance of $73,000. So far this month, BTC has accumulated a rise of 27%, far exceeding gold's 8%.
Bitcoin broke the $74,000 barrier this week, driven by favourable macroeconomic data and a market sentiment that borders on extreme fear, which has historically preceded strong rebounds. The leading cryptocurrency surpassed $73,914 intraday during the Asian session on Monday, its highest level since May.
The rebound, which started on July 1 from a low of $58,000, represents an accumulated gain of 27% in just six days. During the same period, gold has risen by 8%, reaching $4,200 per ounce, according to TradingView data.
US employment data and expectations of rate cuts
The main catalyst for this surge has been the release of June's non-farm payrolls in the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on July 2 that the US economy added only 57,000 jobs, far below the market consensus of between 110,000 and 113,000. Additionally, the data for April and May was revised down by 74,000 jobs.
On the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh stated that inflation risks had moderated. The combination of these two factors weakened the real yields of Treasury bonds and the dollar index (DXY), paving the way for non-interest-bearing safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September fell from 65% to 50% after the data, which paradoxically boosted hedge assets by anticipating a shift in monetary policy.
Why Bitcoin has outperformed gold in this rebound
The difference in performance between the two assets is not coincidental. Bitcoin has shown an extremely high negative correlation with the DXY, of approximately -0.85 in the first half of 2026, making it more sensitive to changes in monetary policy. When the dollar weakens, BTC reacts more intensely than gold.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin sentiment index fell to 11 points, in the extreme fear zone, and the ratio of realised losses and gains was at its lowest level since 2022. Both technical indicators pointed to severe overselling, which often precedes sharp upward movements.
Another key factor is the magnitude of the previous decline. From its all-time high, Bitcoin had retraced by 53%, while gold had only corrected by 30%. This left the cryptocurrency with a much more compressed 'spring effect', ready to stretch powerfully at the first hint of favourable wind.
What to expect now? Resistance at $67,000
The price of Bitcoin is currently moving in a range of $58,000 to $67,000, but it has surpassed the mid-band of $63,000, which analysts interpret as a signal of bullish continuity. The forecast is that it could reach the upper band of $67,000 this week, provided no major negative news arises.
For the retail investor, the message is clear: the market is pricing in a lower rate environment, and digital assets are taking advantage of that window. However, volatility remains extreme. Anyone entering now should be aware that a shift in macro data or statements from the Fed could reverse the trend just as quickly.
For now, Bitcoin has once again demonstrated that when fear is at its peak, it is often the best time to buy. Or at least, not to sell.
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